Sign up for email alerts of new Fluid Journal issues!
Fluid Journal : Late Spring 2013
19 The Fluid Journal Late Spring 2013 Can We Control Weather? The Fluid Journal • Official Journal of the Fluid Fertilizer Foundation • Late Spring 2013 • Vol. 21, No. 3, Issue # 81 It’s too bad we didn’t discover the earth’s long, natural 1,500-year cycle a decade or two before 1984. If we’d known of the cycle, we’d have known in the 1970s that the earth wasn’t sliding back into the Ice Age--something Time and Newsweek had predicted based on the earth’s modest temperature decline after 1940. The cycle, however, told us it was too soon for another “little ice age,” based on the sediment records. The shortest warming in recent record was 350 years long, and our current warming has been only 150 years old. Thus, this recent cycle should tell us our crop-and-people friendly warming should almost certainly continue for centuries ahead. Looking back The thermometer record (since 1860) has shown that the post-1940 cooling had been just a cooling phase of the 60-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the PDO superimposed on the longer 1,500- year cycle. Thus, why we have counted on today’s warming trend to enhance our crop yields and global vegetation with stable growing seasons. Nor should we have expected any wild species to become extinct because the existing species have all been through the temperature cycling, probably hundreds of times. We could also have confidently predicted the current decline in extreme weather events. Yes, I said decline in extreme weather events--and records back that up. Look at the list of extreme weather events for 1956 and it looks amazingly like the past 12 months. Storms get their power from the temperature differential between the equator and the poles. With global warming, the Artic warms a lot and the equator doesn’t--narrowing the differential. Will Dangsgaard and Hans Oeschger didn’t publish their discovery of the 1,500-year climate cycle until the public’s attention had been focused on the “ozone hole” and its widely publicized “man-made threat” to human existence. The media and the professors believed humans were now so powerful that we could control the earth’s weather. They said we had to stop humanity’s foolish pursuit of new technology we didn’t need, and never mind our past successes with sailing ships, coal, steam engines, and penicillin. Past human societies have averaged only about 500 years of brilliant success and then collapsed dramatically. Books warned that those “modern” societies were obviously on a course toward another collapse. The Club of Rome had predicted we’d run out of resources. Paul Ehrlich told us we’d soon starve by the millions because too much food was supporting too many people having too many babies. Except it didn’t happen. Consider Norman Borlaug’s new farm technology package that tripled the world’s crop yields after 1960 as just one example. Summary: The thermometer record since 1860 has shown that the post–1940 cooling had been just a cooling phase of the 60-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Thus, why we have counted on today’s warming trend to enhance our crop yields and global vegetation with stable growing seasons. Still, today, with global food production continuing to trend upward, plus no global warming for 16 years, we’re nevertheless being told that we must stop using fossil fuels that produce food and fertilizer or suffer grim consequences. Humans haven’t failed. Mother Nature has just pulled the rug out from under us over and over, in an endless climate cycling that has slashed crop yields by as much as 50 percent or more. Taking today’s population into consideration, why would we give up the nitrogen fertilizer that helps us triple much-needed yields? Mother nature is the decider, like it or not. Dr. Dennis Avery Richard Alley, 2004, GISP 2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, in Data Contribution Series #2004-013, NOAA/NGCDC Paleoclimateology Program. DOWNLOAD PDF
Early Spring 2013