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Fluid Journal : Spring 2018
10 The Fluid Journal Spring 2018 Figure 4 (above). April 2018 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook from NOAA. with any certainty what summer will bring. Plus, remember that corn and soybeans are tough plants that require substantial and sustained deviations from normal weather conditions before they show signs of stress. So, what do we need to watch? We need to watch for blocking weather patterns to evolve in June, July, and August. The most common type of block is a ridge in the jet stream and historically the development of a ridge over Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois leads to largest negative impacts on corn and soybean yields. Forecasting the position of this weather feature months in advance is impossible. But predicting the evolution of a ridge 10-30 days in advance is possible, and during summer market prices move dramatically on the forecasts of the position of the ridge. Watch for troughs to develop in the Gulf of Alaska and north Atlantic in summer, as these features often lead to hot/dry conditions in the Midwest. We need to also watch for cooler ocean temperatures along the west coast of the US and Mexico, as these are correlated with summer heat in the Midwest. Figure 5 (right). Prevent Plant acreage 2007- 2017. Y-Axis shows the temperature rank for March-May (0=coldest, 124 = warmest). X-Axis shows the number of prevent plant acres in North Dakota. Source: USDA NASS Figure 6 (bottom). Last 30 days of temperature anomalies. Source Climate Prediction Center.