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Fluid Journal : Fall 2014
3 The Fluid Journal Fall 2014 From The Publishers The Fluid Journal • Official Journal of the Fluid Fertilizer Foundation • Fall 2014 • Vol. 22, No. 4, Issue #86 A Revisit on Global Warming Anew book by A. Richard Conroy, presenting primary scientific arguments in opposition to prevailing global warming hypotheses in terms that the non-scientific reader can understand, is now available to the reading public and valuably supplements information presented in our Late Spring 2013 issue of the Fluid Journal. Conrad contends geological history offers uncontestable evidence that climate change is a continuous process that has been recorded in rocks and glacial ice for over three billion years, and has produced repeated warm and cold periods that exceed the temperature variations observed over the last 150 years. Dr. Dennis Avery, a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, reported in our Late Spring issue that our shortest warming period in recent record was 350 years long and, interesting enough, added that our current warming has been only 150 years long. That indeed should be a comforting note, for farmers who raise crops, to know that there are scientists who predict friendly warming is to continue for centuries ahead. As Conroy notes in his book, the absolute global temperatures, magnitude, and rates of temperature change since industrialization began in the 1800’s are neither unique nor unusual when compared to the past 10,000 years. The 0.8 o C global warming observed since 1850 is well within the natural range of prior warmings during similar time spans. He further notes that nowhere in the geologic record does there exist clear, incontrovertible evidence that falling atmospheric hCO2 concentration produces falling temperatures. The CO2 and temperature curves have never been synchronous except for three relatively short periods during the entire 580 My* time span. Conversely, temperatures fell while CO2 was rising at the beginning of the Ordovician/Silurian ice age (~450- 420 Ma**), and temperatures rose to one of their three highest peaks while CO2 fell precipitously prior to the Oligocene/Recent ice age (~100- 55 Ma). Additionally, temperatures never responded to multiple extreme changes in CO2 concentration during this period of 12 million years. Another interesting note in line with this was Dr. Avery’s 2013 observation that during the medieval times of global warming, following the famines, wars, and bubonic plagues of the colder Dark Ages, the world’s human population tripled. It saw the recovery of crops so abundant that the hundreds of thousands of artisans, for example, built Gothic cathedrals in Europe and the 10,000 temples at Anglor Wat in Cambodia. When the Little Ice Age followed, human numbers shrank back to the Dark Age levels owing to renewed famine, drought, and the bubonic plague. According to Conroy, ice core data from Antarctica produced clear evidence over 800,000 years that temperature changes drove CO2 changes (not the reverse). During each of nine transitions, from glacial to interglacial conditions, temperatures rose first and were followed several hundred years later by rising CO2 . During cooling, temperature began to drop several thousand years before CO2 began to fall. As of 2012, the mean of 73 model forecasts placed the global lower tropospheric temperatures about 0.5 o C higher than actual measurements. This is a huge error in proportion to the actual warming of 0.8 o that has taken place over the last 162 years, and it is a critical issue because these model forecasts are the basis for the climate change activists’ demands to reduce CO2 emissions to protect the world against future “runaway” warming. Obviously, in the midst of all this, agriculture faces a challenge to increase food production without adversely affecting the environment. As a component of increased yields and as one source of nutrients in the environment, fertilizer inputs are receiving increased attention and scrutiny. Best management practices, such as the 4R nutrient stewardship program, are also helping assure fertilizer nutrients will be kept in the root zone for plant use and out of surface and ground waters. Working in concert with the Fluid Fertilizer Foundation are such organizations as The Fertilizer Institute, The Canadian Fertilizer Institute, and the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI). In the end, what is needed is a forthright debate that will evaluate all sides of climate variability, leaving out politics and personal prejudices and focus instead on overcoming personal prejudices. Mr. Conroy, in his new book, has done much toward helping to achieve that goal. * “My” means millions of years of duration. ** “Ma” means millions of years before present time. New book broadens views covered in Late Spring 2013 Fluid Journal “Climate change is a continuous process.”